Confirmed 2015 QHPs: at least 38,115 as of 11/21/14
Estimated 2015 QHPs: at least 198,000 as of 11/21/14


2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 7.1M Current / 8.3M PAID / 9.6M Total

Estimated Total, all sources: appx. 28 Million
(7.1M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 11.0M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted)

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Earlier today, in response to #ObamaDentata, Investor's Business Daily wrote an editorial in which they accused the HHS Dept. of flat-out "lying with statistics".

The first part of the piece lays out the basics: HHS claimed the number enrolled in QHPs was 7.3M in August & 7.1M in October, but it was revealed yesterday that the numbers were actually 6.97M in August and 6.7M in October...with the difference being 393,000 dental plans which were effectively double-counted:

This week, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell admitted that her agency had accidentally counted those who'd signed up for stand-alone dental benefits in its health insurance numbers, padding its latest enrollment data by nearly 400,000 — or 6%.

Looks like New Hampshire is switching from "standard" Medicaid expansion to an Arkansas-like "Private Medicaid Option" program next year...and it includes an enrollment update:

"This waiver is an important part of our efforts to improve the health and financial well-being of Granite State families, businesses and communities through our bipartisan health care expansion plan, "Governor Hassan said. " Almost 24,000 Granite Staters have the security that comes with quality, affordable health insurance because of the New Hampshire Health Protection Program, and if approved, this waiver will allow these people to choose private insurance on the health insurance marketplace."

...The purchase of Qualified Health Plans via the marketplace will be paid for with 100 percent federal funds through December 31, 2016.

Through the 19th of November, 23,975 New Hampshire citizens had enrolled in the New Hampshire Health Protection Program.

OK, they aren't separating out new QHP enrollments from renewals, but whatever; the numbers are very good either way:

4,107 individuals have newly enrolled or renewed their enrollment in a qualified health plan.

735 individuals have enrolled in Medicaid

First, that QHP number is excellent.

As for the Medicaid number, it looks rather low. On the other hand, KY has probably already enrolled just about everyone in the state who qualifies for the ACA expansion program, so perhaps not...there may just not be that many more to add at this point!

On the other hand, according to their Twitter feed....

During #kynect's 2nd Open Enrollment, 4k+new accounts created; 15k+ applications submitted; over 4k enrolled in QHPs & 16k+ in Medicaid.

— kynectky (@kynectky) November 21, 2014

Hmmmm....kind of a big gap from "735" to "over 16,000"...will update as necessary, but will plug in 735 for the moment...

Hah...I knew I should've waited a couple more hours to send out the newsletter for the evening...

In the first week of open enrollment, 2,659 new customers signed up for private insurance plans and 8,945 people signed up for Medicaid through Access Health CT, the state’s health insurance exchange.

To reiterate: This is new enrollees only, not renewals:

The figures include people who had not previously had coverage through Access Health. The exchange did not release the number of people who currently have coverage through the exchange and signed up for 2015 coverage.

Oh, yeah, and I'm guessing that #ObamaDentata will mean more clarifications of this nature going forward:

Separately, 123 people signed up for dental coverage sold through the exchange.

Well, there's your transparancy improvement, folks...

OK, the data is very limited (only 9 states...I left Illinois off because that only includes a single insurance company in the state), and it only runs through the first few days for some states (in fact, Hawaii is only part of the first day), but this at least gives me a starting point to work with.

Based, again, on extremely limited/partial numbers), it's looking like the national total in the first week may be twice as many as the entire first month last year. Amazing what a difference working websites can make...

Anyway, this chart is obviously going to jump around a lot as more numbers come in, and will likely increase dramatically as we approach December 15th...and then again as we approach February 15th. This is where it starts, though.

As of this afternoon, 23,457 total applications. 9,735 apps complete. 16,743 Marylanders enrolled in QHP + Medicaid. #GreatStartMaryland

— MD Health Connection (@MarylandConnect) November 21, 2014

OK, without knowing the QHP/Medicaid breakout, I have to temper my data-geek about the 16.7K total. Even so, that's pretty impressive.

For comparison, through October 3rd, Maryland's ratio was around 81,000 QHPs to 263,000 Medicaid additions...or about a 1:3 ratio.

except that about 96,000 of these were "one time" bulk transferees from an existing state-run program. If you take them out, the ratio is more like 81K / 167K, or about 1:2.

Until I get a hard number, I'll err on the side of caution and go with the 1:3 ratio, which would mean around 4,000 QHPs and 12,743 added to Medicaid.

OK, this is excellent. Minnesota has not only updated their official Enrollment Update page for the first time since #OE2 started, they've also clarified exactly when it will be updated (over the off-season it was scattershot, although they sometimes updated it daily:

Latest Enrollment Numbers

November 21, 2014

MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 4,119
MinnesotaCare 1,215
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 2,551
TOTAL 7,885

That's 2,551 QHPs in (less than) 7 days, or 364 per day so far.

For comparison, last year they averaged 242 per day (and remember, that included the massive spikes in December and late March/early April).

Plus, of course, we have the reset Medicare/MinnesotaCare numbers to plug in.

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